How rising temperatures may reshape tourism competitiveness and seasonality
With climate change came many aspects never considered before, but how does raising temperature affect the tourism flow, an activity that many cities depend on?
In a recent article published in Tourism and Management Studies, I examine how rising temperatures affect the hotel industry in five Southern European cities: Seville, Córdoba, Athens, Naples and Lisbon. The analysis covers 600 monthly observations. It finds that higher maximum temperatures, especially during peak-demand months, are associated with lower hotel occupancy. Rising temperatures may therefore reshape both tourism flows and seasonal patterns.
The effects of climate change on tourism matter particularly for Mediterranean countries. Spain and France are among the world’s leading destinations for international tourists. Spain, with a population of nearly 50 million, receives close to 100 million international tourists each year. The Mediterranean is also expected to experience some of Europe’s largest temperature increases. By the end of summer 2026, Spain had recorded 61 heatwave days, compared with the previous high of 41 in 2022.
How rising temperatures will reshape tourism flows dynamics and influence seasonality patterns is relevant for many stakeholders: investors, tourism industry managers and governments managing tourism destinations.
The influence of rising maximum temperatures on occupancy rates
According to our empirical analysis, a 1°C increase in maximum temperature is associated with approximately 2% fall in hotel occupancy. This effect is observed for the peak-demand period, August and September, whereas higher temperatures in other months do not negatively influence occupancy rates. The results are similar when 2020, which was affected by Covid-19, is excluded, and they hold across different model specifications.
The decline may seem small, but repeated increases in temperature could have a cumulative effect. Because hotels have high fixed costs, lower occupancy can reduce profitability. Over the decade studied, maximum temperatures rose particularly sharply in Athens and Seville, where the trend indicates an increase of more than 2°C. This continuous trend can jeopardize the current levels of profitability and the competitiveness of some Southern European destinations.
Thermal discomfort may help explain the effect. Visitors to urban destinations often walk outdoors and visit historic sites. When temperatures approach 30°C, the heat can make these activities less comfortable. Our analysis does not track individual choices, but the results are consistent with tourists shifting to cooler destinations or visiting at another time of year. We estimate that occupancy is highest at around 25.5°C, in line with previous research.
Maximum temperatures, asymmetric effects and changes in seasonality
The effects of rising temperatures are asymmetric. Warmer conditions in traditionally low-demand months, such as February or March, can make a city more attractive to visitors. In already hot summer months, however, temperatures may exceed the comfort threshold and reduce demand.
The asymmetric effect of rising maximum temperatures depending on the month can influence the seasonality pattern we have traditionally observed. Using the Theil index, a commonly used indicator of seasonality, we find that a rise in maximum temperatures in low-demand months is associated with higher occupancy relative to the annual average. This effect is small but statistically significant, and it could become more relevant if temperatures continue to rise. Rising temperatures can contribute, for urban destinations in the South of Europe to flattening their seasonality patterns.
Impact for the industry and policymakers
The term “coolcation” is increasingly used to describe tourists moving away from hot beach-and-sun destinations in search of cooler places. Our findings suggest that this shift may also affect urban destinations in Southern Europe.
The influence of rising temperatures on tourism flows and hotel performance has important implications for the tourism industry. Incorporating these effects into future investment strategies and management decisions will help businesses adapt their staffing, operations and pricing strategies.
Governments responsible for managing tourism destinations also need to understand how climate change may redistribute visitor flows and influence seasonality patterns. Local governments may benefit from early adaptation strategies, as these changes have implications for employment, economic growth and pressure on public services. The uneven effects of higher temperatures across geographical areas may create winners and losers: higher temperatures may improve the competitiveness of some regions and put pressure on others that depend heavily on tourism.