What would Donald Trump’s victory mean for the EU?

The results of the 2024 US elections on November 5 will likely be the single most influential moment of this year. A second Donald J. Trump presidency or a victory of Vice President Kamala Harris will deeply impact the future of the United States of America. Still, it will also fundamentally define the relationship between the US and the EU. For that reason, we are making a comparative analysis of the Democratic and Republican proposals, intending to conclude the potential effects that a Trump or Harris presidency will have on Europe on issues like security, trade, and ideology. 

This article is the first in a two-part series, examining the implications of a potential Donald Trump victory. You can read our analysis of the potential impact of a Kamala Harris presidency here. 

Republican victory: Trump-Vance

Anyone who remembers the first administration of Donald Trump recalls the constant news cycle of scandals and the unpredictable nature of his decisions. One of the defining features of President Trump, for better or worse, was the impossibility to predict his next moves, which continuously confused his rivals. 

Nonetheless, even though Mr. Trump often makes multiple contradicting statements, his electoral campaign strategy is indeed more clearly defined than in 2016. For these reasons, we can draw from the latest declarations from Mr. Trump to formulate a picture of how a second Trump presidency may affect Europe. 

NATO & Ukraine

The most significant implications for Europeans under a new Trump presidency would concern the fate of NATO and the potential end of US support for Ukraine.  

While the US began shifting its focus to China during the Obama administration, Trump accelerated this pivot by criticizing European nations for failing to meet NATO's 2% GDP spending target and promoting a “Dormant NATO” strategy. The Dormant NATO strategy involves withdrawing most US troops out of Europe and leaving the continent to handle its own security, with the US playing only a supporting role. Trump has used threats to push European allies, including telling EU officials in 2020 that the US would “quit NATO” and suggesting in 2024 that Russia could do “whatever the hell they want” against NATO members not meeting spending guidelines. 

It is likely that Trump would reduce aid to pressure Ukraine into unfavorable peace talks with Russia

Since Trump left office, the number of NATO members meeting the 2% spending target has risen from five in 2016 to an estimated 23 in 2024, driven by both the Russian invasion of Ukraine and fears of a second Trump presidency. However, after meeting with Poland’s President Andrzej Duda in 2024, Trump reportedly considered raising the target to 3%, an unrealistic demand that could strain even large economies like Germany and France. 

Trump’s unpredictability also clouds the future of US support for Ukraine. Trump was impeached after being accused of trying to blackmail the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, by withholding military support for Ukraine. Since then, he has promised to withhold military aid from Ukraine if reelected and has questioned bipartisan support for it, though he refrained from opposing a recent Ukraine aid bill. On the other hand, some Ukrainians believe he might actually increase support for Kyiv to hasten the end of the war, in contrast to Biden’s more cautious approach. 

Nevertheless, it is more likely that Trump would reduce aid to pressure Ukraine into unfavorable peace talks with Russia, potentially resulting in an imbalanced peace settlement that could embolden Moscow. Senator J.D. Vance suggested that a Trump peace plan would assure Russia of Ukraine’s neutrality and prevent it from joining NATO or other allied institutions. 

Additionally, the EU’s involvement in any peace talks is crucial, as European security is more directly impacted by the conflict. If Trump were to sideline the EU and Ukraine in negotiations, like he did when dealing with the Taliban without the Afghan government in 2020, European security would remain fragile. 

Industry and commerce

Mr. Trump has a clear policy on industrial and trade issues, embodied by his protectionist approach, often referred to as “America First” and “Protecting the US from Unfair Trade”. In the Republican Party Platform, Republicans express their deep worry that “[US] Trade deficit in goods has grown to over $1 Trillion a year”, which they argue is caused by unfair trade practices, mainly perpetrated by China. 

Trump could drag the EU into a hostile commercial attitude towards China

To address this issue, during Trump’s first presidency, he started a trade war with China by imposing a unilateral 18% tariff on Chinese products and withdrew the US from the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the EU. Now he promises to raise tariffs on China up to 60% and expand them to impose a 10% to 20% tariff on all imports into the US. It is very likely that due to Trump’s hostile attitude towards China, he would drag the EU along with him, forcing the EU to restrict its trade with China or face US sanctions as retribution.  

On the upside for the EU, President Trump has also committed to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The IRA was a major point of contention between Brussels and Washington during Biden's administration, since the EU considered the showering of subsidies on US companies as unfair competition. Trump, for his part, considers the IRA too great a tax burden. 

Overall, a second Trump term could harm the EU’s trade and infuriate European leaders. His actions suggest an intent to raise the existing transatlantic trade tariff from its current rate of under 3%, withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement once more, and push the EU into a trade conflict with China—one the EU does not seek. 

Bilateral relations and ideology

Finally, a Trump victory in the US elections may have long-term consequences too intangible to measure. His victory could become a turning point for the rules-based world order created after WWII, shifting the political zeitgeist of the West to the right. 

Mr. Trump has been very transparent about who he considers his political “friends” abroad. In democratic countries, he prefers “strongmen” politicians who align with his hardline right-wing populist ideology. Repeatedly, Mr. Trump has praised the Hungarian president Viktor Orban by calling him “a strong leader” and “fantastic”. 

Similar to far-right populist parties in Europe, Trumpism also centers its ideology around anti-globalist rhetoric, skepticism toward NATO and the EU, opposing mass immigration, and generally appealing to socially conservative voters. The alignment between the European far-right and Trumpism is so strong that on April 25 the European version of the American Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC)—CPAC Hungary 2024—included Republican senators, Viktor Orban, Santiago Abascal (leader of the Spanish VOX party), and Geert Wilders (leader of the Dutch PVV party). 

Donald Trump's return to the White House could be the catalyst that finally legitimizes far-right movements in Europe, potentially paving their way to power. The US does not determine the politics of Europe. Yet, in a political landscape where far-right parties are on the edge of gaining power in Europe's largest countries, perhaps Trump’s victory may tilt the balance. Should Trump be re-elected, experts believe he will prefer to dialogue with European leaders with similar ideologies like Orban in Hungary, Giorgia Meloni from Italy, and Robert Fico from Slovakia. These politicians could serve as intermediaries between Brussels and Washington, effectively sidelining the EU from the conversation and strengthening their parties’ position because of their privileged access to negotiate with Trump. 

Conclusion

The 2024 U.S. elections will have far-reaching consequences for Europe, impacting security, trade, and political dynamics. A Trump presidency would likely challenge NATO's stability, reshape trade relations through protectionist measures, and embolden far-right populism across Europe.  

In the second part of this series, we look at how a Kamala Harris victory would be for the EU.