Trump’s new mandate: Electoral results and foresight
The resounding victory of Donald Trump signals greater protectionism and a profound reform of the American state. On the global stage, it will accelerate the redefinition of the new international order.
Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the US presidential election on November 5, 2024, came as no surprise to his staunch supporters. The candidate secured 312 electoral votes (50%) compared to the 226 votes (48.3%) of his Democratic opponent, with a popular vote lead of two and a half million nationwide and victories in all seven swing states.
Donald Trump and the Republican Party emerged victorious not only in the House of Representatives but also in the Senate, giving Trump fewer obstacles to proposing and passing federal legislation.
The Democrats’ defeat can be attributed to several factors, including Joe Biden’s delayed withdrawal from the race and the party’s inability to counter the rise of a candidate who lacked broader appeal. Biden’s decision to seek a second term after the 2022 midterm elections surprised many, who had hoped for a competitive primary and a younger, centrist candidate.
Kamala Harris lost up to 11% of voters who had previously supported Biden in the last election
The Democratic camp believed it held the only valid answers to campaign issues and focused on priorities like defending democracy, abortion rights, and public healthcare—issues that ultimately failed to mobilize voters. Their identity politics, which both exalt and entrench minority groups, alienated many ordinary citizens, including Hispanic and African American voters, who were more concerned with economic progress than defending freedoms they already felt they had.
Barack Obama’s admonishment of African American voters, urging them to support Harris, proved counterproductive. The fervor of the “woke” movement also backfired, exemplified by Massachusetts’ summer legislation proposing to replace the term “mother” with “birthing person.”
Democrats failed to shed a condescending mindset that dismissed dissenting views, encapsulated in the sentiment: "They should be more like us."
Several factors explain the Republican candidate’s success. Firstly, Trump reclaimed three traditionally Democratic states from the so-called “Blue Wall” (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). Secondly, he consolidated his support in Republican strongholds, achieving higher margins than during his first term. Thirdly, voter profile analysis shows Trump garnered significant support from Latino voters, working-class men without higher education, and young voters. According to BBC Mundo and La Razón (2024), the average Trump voter this election was a “white, middle-class male aged 45-64 without higher education.” Among Gen Z voters, confidence in the Democratic Party eroded, with Harris losing 11% of Biden’s previous supporters.
Trump’s economic policy: “Trumponomics” and the new international order
Trump’s economic agenda for his second term is rooted in his slogan, “America First.” It sets a new course: commercial protectionism coupled with tax cuts and a radical overhaul of the state to continue improving the US economy.
Trump’s voter base largely supports reducing US contributions to NATO, withdrawing from Ukraine, imposing higher tariffs on China, and offering unconditional support to Israel.
This election result could be pivotal in the ongoing redefinition of the multipolar new international order
Trump’s international commitments are framed through an economic lens, weighing whether the potential benefits to the US outweigh the costs of participation. From this perspective, international analysts broadly agree that Trump will likely withdraw from agreements such as the Paris Climate Accord and reevaluate the US role in the weakened World Trade Organization.
This outcome could play a critical role in shaping the current multipolar new international order (NIO). The NIO features an emerging leader, China, which has secured dominance in commerce and technology but faces demographic challenges. Meanwhile, the European Union is grappling with redesigning its competitiveness and industrial policies, considering Ukraine’s potential membership, and reforming its Green Deal to address environmental challenges. The Global South remains a heterogeneous bloc, with powers like India, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia triangulating between the US and China, leveraging their non-aligned strategies.
Final thoughts
Donald Trump’s clear victory comes at a time when US-China rivalry is intensifying, and global disorder is escalating, with unresolved conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. Beijing will likely exploit any U.S. isolationist measures to bolster its global influence.
Europe could face a triple shock to its security, economy, and democracy during Trump’s second term. The EU and its member states have little time to develop autonomous security and defense capabilities, strengthen NATO amid potential weakening, and emerge as an effective global actor advocating for a fairer international order. In 2016, at the start of Trump’s first term, Angela Merkel urged Europeans to “take our destiny into our own hands.” Eight years later, this task is more urgent than ever.
