What does China want?
China is redefining what it means to be a global superpower—and doing so on its own terms. In this episode of Do Better Podcast, Dr. Yu Jie unpacks the country’s economic transition, geopolitical strategy, and shifting global ambitions for the years ahead.
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China is undergoing one of the most significant strategic transformations in its modern history, and few analysts are better placed to unpack it than Dr. Yu Jie. In this new episode, Professor Angel Saz-Carranza, director of EsadeGeo, sits down with the Senior Research Fellow on China at Chatham House to explore how Beijing understands its role in a rapidly shifting world—and why its economic and geopolitical decisions today will shape global dynamics for years to come.
1. China’s strategic aims and its own model of global power
China is not seeking to replicate the United States’ model of superpower leadership. Instead, it aims to define a distinct form of global influence built on three pillars:
- Economic resilience.
- Military capability.
- Global outreach and influence.
Crucially, China wants to avoid the international security burdens that come with being a traditional superpower. During a phase of deep economic transition, Beijing prioritizes domestic stability and is unwilling to assume greater global responsibilities that could dilute this focus.
2. Priorities of the new Five-Year Plan
There are three strategic priorities embedded in China’s forthcoming Five-Year Plan:
- Technological self-reliance.
China seeks full autonomy in critical technologies—from semiconductors to AI and quantum computing—and aims to reconfigure supply chains to reduce exposure to external vulnerabilities. Economic security now holds equal weight to economic growth. - Maintaining China’s manufacturing dominance.
The leadership is determined to avoid the deindustrialization paths of advanced Western economies. China intends to preserve a large manufacturing base, ensure control over inputs and supply chains, and sustain the employment and innovation capacity that manufacturing supports. - Addressing weak domestic consumption.
Headline consumption numbers appear low, the picture is more nuanced. Cultural preferences for saving, leadership concerns about dependency on foreign goods, and the after-effects of regulatory crackdowns all contribute to tepid consumption growth. Rather than direct stimulus, Beijing is focusing on digital and physical infrastructure investment to generate employment and raise household confidence.
3. China’s engagement with global governance
China’s approach to the international system follows two parallel tracks:
- Reforming existing institutions such as the UN, IMF, and World Bank to give more weight to non-Western countries and to align governance norms with China’s preferences in areas like cybersecurity and AI.
- Creating complementary institutions—including the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), BRICS mechanisms, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation—that expand China’s influence without directly displacing Western-led structures.
These initiatives reflect a long-term strategy to reshape global governance while hedging against Western dominance.
4. Managing relationships with key neighbors: Russia and India
China’s two most strategically sensitive bilateral relationships:
- Russia: China’s alignment with Russia is driven by geography and security rather than ideology. With a 4300 km shared border, Beijing prioritizes border stability and sees little benefit in distancing itself from Moscow during the Ukraine conflict.
- India: Despite recurrent border tensions, both countries have moved toward de-escalation since late 2024, influenced by shared concerns about geopolitical volatility and the possibility of a more unpredictable US administration. Coexistence, rather than alignment, is the operative principle.
Japan also remains a complex neighbor, with historical grievances and current strategic competition shaping the relationship.
5. What to watch in 2026: China–Europe turbulence
Looking ahead, Europe is the region where the most significant friction is likely to emerge. Key drivers include:
- Europe’s discomfort with China’s position on the war in Ukraine.
- Intensifying industrial competition as China doubles down on manufacturing.
- Rising potential for trade disputes.
Until the conflict in Ukraine stabilizes, meaningful rapprochement between China and the EU appears unlikely.